WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture on April 9, in its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised its forecasts for 2019-20 ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans. In each case, the new forecasts were above trade expectations.
The USDA forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2020, at 970 million bus, up 30 million bus from the March projection but down 110 million bus, or 10%, from 1,080 million bus in 2019. The higher carryover projection reflected a 15-million-bu reduction in forecast 2019-20 feed and residual use of wheat to 135 million bus and a 15-million-bu reduction in projected 2019-20 wheat exports to 985 million bus.
The cut in the wheat export forecast was tied to the recent slowing in the pace of shipments and prices that have become uncompetitive in many international import markets.
The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2020, at 2,092 million bus, up 200 million bus from March but down 129 million bus, or 6%, from 2,221 million bus in 2019.
The USDA raised its forecast for feed and residual use of corn in 2019-20 by 150 million bus, to 5,675 million bus, but it lowered its forecast for use of corn in the manufacture of ethanol by 375 million bus, to 5,050 million bus. The lower ethanol use forecast was based on the unprecedented decline in ethanol production and motor gasoline consumption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The 2019-20 corn export forecast was unchanged at 1,725 million bus.
The USDA projected the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2020, at 480 million bus, up 55 million bus from the March forecast but down 429 million bus, or 47%, from 909 million bus in 2019. The USDA raised its soybean crush forecast for 2019-20 by 10 million bus, to 2,125 million bus, because of strong demand for soybean meal. Soybean exports in 2019-20 were forecast at 1,775 million bus, down 50 million from the March outlook. Soybean exports were lowered because of strong competition from Brazil.