OTTAWA — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in its monthly Outlook for Principal Field Crops released May 22 forecast the carryover of all wheat in Canada on Aug. 1, 2021, at 6,800,000 tonnes, down 100,000 tonnes from the April outlook but up 900,000 tonnes, or 15%, from 5,900,000 tonnes as the projection for 2020. The May carryover and other wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2020-21 included adjustments from April based on information incorporated from Statistics Canada’s report on March 31 grain and oilseed stocks and that agency’s March Seeding Intentions of Principal Field Crops report, both issued on May 7.
AAFC projected Canadian all-wheat production in 2020 at 33,900,000 tonnes, unchanged from the April outlook but up 1,552,000 tonnes, or 5%, from 32,348,000 tonnes in 2019. AAFC forecast area seeded to all wheat in 2020 at 10,349,000 hectares, 81,000 hectares smaller than the April projection but 224,000 hectares, or 2%, larger than the 2019 seeded area at 10,125,000 hectares. The harvested area for this year was forecast at 9,994,000 hectares compared with 10,155,000 hectares as the April projection, but the projected average yield for 2020 was raised to 3.39 tonnes per hectare from 3.34 tonnes in April, which resulted in a crop forecast equal to last year’s outturn.
The total all-wheat supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 40,000,000 tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes from April and up 4% from 38,638,000 tonnes in 2019-20. Domestic use of all wheat in 2020-21 was forecast at 9,100,000 tonnes, down 40,000 tonnes from the April projection and down 738,000 tonnes, or 8%, from 9,838,000 tonnes as the forecast for the current year. All-wheat exports in 2020-21 were projected at 24,100,000 tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the April forecast and up 5% from a projected 22,900,000 tonnes in 2019-20.
AAFC forecast area planted to wheat excluding durum in Canada for harvest in 2020 at 8,233,000 hectares, up 83,000 hectares from the April outlook and up 88,000 hectares, or 1%, from 8,145,000 hectares in 2019. AAFC said winter wheat area increased 17% from 2019 and forecast a marginal decrease in spring wheat area. Production of wheat excluding durum was forecast at 28,400,000 tonnes, up 400,000 tonnes from the April projection and up 1,029,000 tonnes, or 4%, from 27,731,000 tonnes in 2019.
“The winter wheat production is projected to increase by 65% to 2.8 million tonnes due to higher seeded area and a return to normal abandonment rate,” AAFC said. “Spring wheat production is expected to fall marginally to 25.6 million tonnes.”
AAFC forecast the carryover of durum on Aug. 1, 2021, at 800,000 tonnes, down 11% from the projection for the current year at 900,000 tonnes. The area seeded to durum was forecast at 2,116,000 hectares, down 164,000 hectares from the April projection but up 7% from 1,980,000 hectares in 2019. Based on a return to a normal abandonment rate and higher trend yields, AAFC projected durum production in 2020 at 5,500,000 tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from April but up 523,000 tonnes, or 11%, from 4,977,000 tonnes in 2019.
Because of the small 2020 carryover, the durum supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 6,500,000 tonnes, down 5% from 6,869,000 tonnes in 2019-20. Domestic use in 2020-21 was forecast at 800,000 tonnes, down 25% from 1,069,000 tonnes in the current year. AAFC forecast 2020-21 durum exports at 4,900,000 tonnes, unchanged from the projection for 2019-20.