OTTAWA — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) on July 17 forecast Canadian wheat production in 2020 at 33,600,000 tonnes, down 300,000 tonnes from the June projection but up 1,252,000 tonnes, or 4%, from 32,348,000 tonnes in 2019. The downward adjustment from the June production forecast was based on Statistics Canada’s survey-based estimates of field crop areas issued June 29, six days after AAFC published its June supply-and-demand report.
Taking into consideration the Statistics Canada field crop area estimates, AAFC forecast the harvested area for all wheat in Canada in 2020 at 9,899,000 hectares compared with the previous outlook at 9,994,000 hectares and with 9,656,000 hectares in 2019. The projected wheat yield for 2020 was left unchanged from June at 3.39 tonnes per hectare.
AAFC forecast Canadian production of wheat excluding durum at 27,600,000 tonnes, down 800,000 tonnes, or 3%, from the June projection but up 229,000 tonnes from 27,371,000 tonnes in 2019. The production forecast was based on a harvested area projected at 7,643,000 hectares (7,920,000 hectares as the June projection) and an average yield projection at 3.61 tonnes per hectare (3.59 tph in June).
AAFC commented that Canadian area seeded to wheat excluding durum decreased 3% from 2019 as a 17% increase in the winter wheat area was more than offset by a 5% decrease for spring wheat area. Seeded area estimates for 2020 included 636,00 hectares for winter wheat (545,000 hectares in 2019) and 6,185,000 hectares for Canadian western red spring (6,679,000 hectares).
Winter wheat production this year was forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, up 59% from 2019, according to AAFC. Spring wheat production was projected at 24.9 million tonnes, down 3% from 2019.
The total supply of wheat excluding durum in 2020-21 was projected to increase 3% from 2019, to 32,720,000 tonnes, because of the higher production projection and estimated carry-in stocks. Exports in 2020-21 were projected at 19,000,000 tonnes, up 4% from 2019-20. Carryout stocks of wheat excluding durum for 2020-21 (the Canadian crop year ends July 31) were forecast to increase 8% from 2019-20 to 5.4 million tonnes.
AAFC forecast Canadian durum production at 6,000,000 tonnes in 2020, up 500,000 tonnes from the June projection and up 1,023,000 tonnes, or 21%, from 4,977,000 tonnes in 2019. Both the seeded area estimate and the harvested area forecast were raised from June because of the Statistics Canada survey data.
“Supply (durum) is projected to rise by 2% as the higher production is mostly offset by lower carry-in stocks,” AAFC said. “Exports are expected to rise by 2% to 5.1 million tonnes due to the higher supply and strong world demand.”
The Canadian durum carryout for 2020-21 was projected at 1,000,000 tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the June outlook and up 100,000 tonnes from 2019-20.