WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture on Nov. 10 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2021, to 877 million bus, down 6 million bus from the October projection and down 151 million bus, or 15%, from 1,028 million bus in 2020. As forecast, the 2021 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 752 million bus in 2015 and compare with 1,073 million bus as the recent five-year average carryover.
With wheat supply in 2020-21 forecast unchanged at 2,979 million bus, the reduction to the carryover was tied to a 6-million-bu increase in domestic usage in 2020-21 to 1,127 million bus.
Powering the increase in domestic use was a 5-million-bu hike in the forecast for food use of wheat in 2020-21 to a record 965 million bus.
The USDA said in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts, “This increase is based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service Flour Milling Report, which indicated higher food use for the early part of the marketing year than previously estimated.”
The USDA also raised its forecast for 2020-21 seed use of wheat to 62 million bus, up 1 million bus from the October projection and up 2 million bus from 2019-20.
The wheat feed and residual use projection was unchanged from October at 100 million bus.
The USDA left unchanged from October its forecast for 2020-21 wheat exports at 975 million bus, up 10 million bus from 2019-20.
Total wheat disappearance in the United States in 2020-21 was projected at 2,102 million bus, up 6 million from the October outlook and compared with 2,089 million bus in 2019-20.