WASHINGTON — Apart from off-setting by-class adjustments to imports and exports, US Department of Agriculture economists left their projections for 2020-21 US wheat supply and demand largely unchanged for a second consecutive month.
In its March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA forecast the carryover of US wheat on June 1, 2021, at 836 million bus, unchanged from the February and January projections and down 192 million bus, or 19%, from 1,028 million bus in 2020.
Private trade analysts' pre-report estimates for the USDA’s carryover projection, which ranged from 826 million to 868 million bus, averaged 839 million bus. Analysts’ own estimates ranged from 816 million to 841 million bus, averaging 830 million bus, according to Reuters.
Domestic wheat supply and demand forecasts were left entirely unchanged from the February estimate, including beginning stocks at 1,028 million bus, production at 1,826 million bus, and imports at 120 million bus, for a total supply of 2,974 million bus.
Also carried over untouched from February were the projections for total US food, seed, and feed and residual use categories for wheat, at 965 million, 63 million and 125 million bus, respectively, for a total domestic use of 1,153 million bus. Projected exports were unchanged from February at 985 million bus, up 20 million bus from 965 million bus in 2020.
There were relatively minor, off-setting adjustments to wheat by class. For hard red winter wheat, total supply was raised 1 million bus from February to 1,168 million bus while the export projection was lowered 20 million bus. The result was a 21-million-bu increase in hard red winter wheat ending stocks to 383 million bus.
The projection for soft red winter wheat total supply was lowered 1 million bus resulting in a like decline in projected ending stocks to 99 million bus. The white wheat export projection was raised 20 million bus, leading to a like decline in white wheat ending stocks to 64 million bus.
In commentary accompanying the monthly update, the USDA said, “White wheat exports are raised on continued strong sales and shipments to China and South Korea. Conversely, hard red winter exports are lowered as commitments to several western hemisphere markets are below a year ago.”