LONDON – Projected global wheat production in 2021-22 has been cut by the International Grains Council to 782 million tonnes, down 6 million tonnes from the group’s July 29 forecast but still up 1.2% from 773 million tonnes in 2020-21.
The Council attributed the cut from last month to smaller projections for wheat production in Canada, Russia and the United States. At 782 million tonnes, the global wheat crop still would be the largest ever.
The 2022 wheat carryover forecast also was lowered from July but not by as large a margin as wheat production. Ending stocks next year were forecast at 278 million tonnes, down 2 million from the July projection and down 1 million tonnes from this year’s forecast of 279 million tonnes. Global consumption of wheat in 2021-22 was trimmed 4 million tonnes from July to 783 million tonnes, up 1.7% from 770 million in 2020-21. The Council said the cut reflected a prospective reduction in wheat feeding in the new crop year.
Overall grains production in 2021-22 was forecast by the IGC at 2,283 million tonnes, down 12 million tonnes from July but up 70 million tonnes, or 3.2%, from 2,213 million tonnes in 2020-21. Global grains ending stocks next year were projected at 589 million tonnes, down 5 million tonnes from July and down 5 million tonnes, or 0.8%, from 594 million tonnes in 2021.
It would be the fifth straight year in which the global grains carryover shrank. In addition to wheat, the IGC said carryovers of barley and millet/triticale will contract while corn and rye ending stocks are expected to be larger in 2022 than in 2021.
Global grains trade is projected to decrease in 2021-22 by 12 million tonnes, to 415 million tonnes. It would be the first drop in global grain trade in three years.