WASHINGTON – The US Department of Agriculture on Oct. 12 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2022, to 580 million bus, down 35 million bus from the September projection and down 265 million bus, or 31%, from 845 million bus in 2021. As forecast, the 2022 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 2008. The USDA projection compared with 576 million bus as the average of pre-report trade estimates.
The USDA projected the 2021-22 wheat supply at 2,616 million bus, down 60 million bus from the September outlook and down 341 million bus, or 12%, from 2,957 million bus in 2020-21. The lower supply forecast was tied to a 51-million-bu reduction in the 2021 all-wheat crop estimate to 1,646 million bus as reported in the Small Grains 2021 Summary issued on Sept. 30, and a 10-million-bu reduction in the forecast for wheat imports in 2020-21 to 125 million bus, based on the import pace to date.
The USDA forecast domestic disappearance of wheat in 2021-22 at 1,161 million bus, down 25 million from the previous projection but up 41 million bus from 1,120 million bus in 2020-21, Most of the increase from the previous year was tied to a 40-million-bu higher forecast for feed and residual use of wheat in 2021-22 at 135 million bus. At the same time, the feed use projection was 25 million bus lower than the September forecast for the current year.
Food use of wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 964 million bus, unchanged from September and up 3 million bus from 961 million bus in 2020-21. As forecast, food use of wheat in the current year would compare with the record 964.1 million bus in 2017-18. Seed use of wheat in 2021-22 was projected at 62 million bus, unchanged from September but down 2 million bus from 2020-21.
US wheat exports in 2021-22 were forecast at 875 million bus, unchanged from September but down 117 million bus, or 12%, from 992 million bus in 2020-21.
The USDA made several adjustments to its 2021-22 supply-and-demand forecasts for wheat by class.
The 2022 hard red winter wheat carryover was projected at 311 million bus, down 36 million from the September forecast and down 117 million bus, or 27%, from 428 million bus in 2021. Domestic supply of hard red winter wheat for 2021-22 was estimated at 1,182 million bus, down 26 million bus from September mostly because of the smaller 2021 production estimate at 749 million bus, down 28 million bus from the September number. Domestic use of hard red winter wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 511 million bus, up 5 million from September and up 27% from 402 million in the previous year. Hard red winter wheat exports in 2021-22 were projected at 360 million bus, up 5 million from September and up 20 million bus from 2020-21.
The 2022 hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 113 million bus, up 2 million from the September outlook but down 122 million bus, or 52%, from 235 million bus in 2021. Hard red spring wheat supply in 2021-22 was forecast at 592 million bus, down 13 million bus from September as the 2021 production estimate was lowered 8 million bus, to 297 million, and imports were lowered 5 million bus, to 60 million bus. Domestic use of hard red spring wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 254 million bus, down 15 million from September, and exports were projected at 225 million bus, unchanged from September and compared with 284 million bus in 2020-21.
The USDA projected the 2022 soft red winter wheat carryover at 94 million bus, down 5 million from September but up 9 million bus from 2021. The 2021-22 soft red winter wheat supply was lowered 5 million bus from September, to 451 million bus, because of a 5-million-bu cut in the production estimate to 361 million bus. Projections for 2021-22 domestic use and exports were unchanged from September at 237 million bus and 120 million bus, respectively.
The white wheat carryover for 2022 was projected at 41 million bus, up 1 million from September and compared with 70 million bus in 2021. The white wheat supply in 2021-22 was estimated at 276 million bus, down 13 million from September, as the estimate for the 2021 white wheat crop was lowered 13 million bus to 201 million.
The USDA forecast the 2022 durum carryover at 20 million bus, up 2 million bus from September but down 7 million bus from 2021. The 2021-22 durum supply was forecast at 115 million bus, down 2 million from September and down 33 million bus from 148 million in 2020-21. The domestic use forecast for 2021-22 was 80 million bus, up 5 million from September but down 13 million from 93 million bus in 2020-21, and exports were forecast unchanged from September at 15 million bus, down 13 million bus from 28 million in 2020-21.