WASHINGTON – The US Department of Agriculture in its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Nov. 9 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at 583 million bus, up 3 million from the October projection but down 262 million bus, or 31%, from 845 million bus in 2021. Even with the upward adjustment from October, the 2022 carryover was forecast to be the smallest since 306 million bus in 2008 and compared with 1,047 million bus as the recent five-year average carryout. The number was in line with the average of pre-report trade projections at 581 million bus.
The USDA lowered its forecast for the 2021-22 wheat supply by 10 million bus, to 2,606 million bus, because of a lower projection for wheat imports at 115 million bus. The USDA said it reduced its wheat import forecast because of a continued weak import pace. Forecast hard red spring wheat imports for 2021-22 were lowered 5 million bus, to 55 million bus, and the durum import forecast was lowered 5 million bus, to 46 million bus. Still, the import outlook for 2021-22 was up 15 million bus from 2020-21.
The USDA raised its forecast for 2021-22 domestic use of wheat by 2 million bus, to 1,163 million bus. The forecast food use of wheat in 2021-22 was lowered 2 million bus, to 962 million, because of a “slower-than-expected pace of flour milling as reported in the quarterly NASS Flour Milling Products report,” according to the USDA. At the same time, seed use of wheat in 2021-22 was projected at 66 million bus, up 4 million bus from the October forecast and up 2 million bus from 2020-21. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2021-22 was unchanged from October at 135 million bus, up 40 million bus from 2020-21.
The USDA projected 2021-22 wheat exports at 860 million bus, down 15 million bus from the October forecast and down 132 million bus, or 13%, from 992 million bus in 2020-21. It would be the smallest US wheat outgo since 778 million bus in 2015-16. The USDA commented its export forecast was reduced based “on lower anticipated exports of hard red spring and white wheat based on high domestic prices and muted export sales.”
The USDA’s carryover forecasts by class included hard red winter wheat at 299 million bus, down 12 million from October; hard red spring wheat at 127 million bus, up 14 million; soft red winter at 93 million bus, down 1 million; white wheat at 46 million bus, up 5 million, and durum at 17 million bus, down 3 million bus.