ISLE OF PALMS, SC. —Canadian oats acres will increase in 2022, but not as much as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast three weeks ago, a Canadian oats grower and market analyst said on April 10 at the North American Millers’ Association 2022 Spring Conference in South Carolina.
AAFC on March 18 forecast that Canadian growers would plant 1,500,000 hectares to oats this spring, up more than 8% from 1,385,000 hectares in 2021. One hectare is the equivalent of 2.47 acres. The ministry indicated the larger seeded area, in concert with better yield and higher production, would increase total Canadian supply by 40% to 4,600,000 tonnes “mainly reflecting the expected recovery in production for the Prairie provinces, on expectation for a larger area, a return to average abandonment rates and trend yields.”
Shawna Mathieson, a Saskatchewan oats grower and the executive director of the Prairie Oat Growers Association, forecast Canadian oats plantings this spring to be up 4% to 4.5% from 2021.
“I think 4% is likely closer to where we’ll be, maybe a little lower than that,” she said.
Randy Strychar, owner and president of Ag Commodity Research and Oatinformation.com, projected the area seeded to oats in Canada in 2022 will increase 6% to 3,707,000 acres, above the recent five-year average of 3,422,000 acres per year. Mr. Strychar projected 2022 Canadian oats production at 4,294,000 tonnes, up 1,688,000 tonnes, or 39%, from 2,606,000 tonnes in 2021. If that figure is realized, it would be the second largest oat crop in 14 years and well above the recent five-year average of 3,716,000 tonnes.As for carryout, Ms. Mathieson projected the carryover of Canadian oats into the 2022-23 crop year at “well under 500,000 metric tons. I thinking closer to 450,000 metric tons based on my forecasting, above 400,000 but still pretty tight for the next year.”