WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised from July its forecasts for US sugar supply for both 2021-22 and 2022-23, resulting in higher ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios for both years.
The USDA projected 2021-22 (current year) ending stocks at 1,828,000 tons, up 46,000 tons from its July forecast, boosting the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.3% from 14%. The increased supply was the result of a 47,000-ton increase in high-tier imports, forecast at a record 325,000 tons. Beet sugar production was lowered 1,000 tons, to 5,155,000 tons, with total supply forecast at 14,568,000 tons, up 45,769 tons from July and up 496,000 tons from 2020-21. Forecast deliveries in 2021-22 were unchanged from July, including for food at 12,600,000 tons, with imports from Mexico and tariff-rate quota imports also unchanged.
For 2022-23, which begins Oct. 1, the USDA projected beet sugar production at 5,138,000 tons, up 203,993 tons from July based on forecast higher sugar beet yields. Cane sugar production was unchanged at 4,013,000 tons. There were no changes to 2022-23 imports. Total supply was forecast at 14,479,000 tons, up 249,762 tons from July accounting for a 45,769-ton increase in beginning stocks and higher beet sugar production.
There were no changes from July in forecast 2022-23 sugar use, including deliveries for food at 12,525,000 tons.
Ending stocks in 2022-23 were forecast at 1,814,227 tons, up 249,762 tons from July, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.32%, up from 12.35% in July.Mexico’s sugar production in 2021-22 was estimated at 6,185,050 tonnes, actual weight, up 5,237 tonnes from the July estimate based on end-of-season CONADESUCA estimates. Exports were estimated at 1,794,000 tonnes, up 5,237 tonnes, resulting in ending stocks of 947,000 tonnes, unchanged from July. There were no changes from July in supply or use projections for 2022-23 with ending stocks also projected at 947,000 tonnes.