LONDON — Global total grains production and consumption in the 2022-23 marketing year were revised downward by the International Grains Council (IGC) in its latest monthly grain market report released on Aug. 18.
The IGC projected total grains production 4 million tonnes lower than the previous month at 2.248 billion tonnes. If realized, output would be 2% lower than the previous year but would still be the second largest crop on record, the IGC said.
The report said this year’s production total is being pulled lower mainly by a 41-million-tonne decline in corn output. Wheat production is forecast down 3 million tonnes from the 2021-22 total at 778 million tonnes but is up 8 million tonnes month-on-month.
Mainly reflecting a smaller feed estimate, tied to an overall tighter supply outlook, the world total grains consumption figure is down 3 million tonnes from the IGC’s previous projection in July at 2.274 million tonnes, which is 1% lower year-on-year.
Partly linked to greater EU maize import needs, global trade of total grains is pegged at 409 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes higher than the previous month’s projection but 15 million tonnes lower than in 2021-22.
Including drawdowns for corn, wheat, barley and sorghum, cumulative global closing stocks are projected to drop by 4%, to an eight-year low of 577 million tonnes.
Chiefly tied to expectations for a rebound in South American output, 2022-23 world soybean production is projected to expand by 11% year-on-year to a record of 389 million tonnes.
“Prospects for growth in uptake of soy products in feed, food and industrial sectors should support gains in total use, to a record of 379 million tonnes, while solid inventory accumulation is anticipated,” the IGC said.
Global soybean import demand is tentatively seen rebounding by 8% year-on-year, with Southern Hemisphere exporters expected to account for an increased share of trade, the IGC noted.
Rice trade is forecast at a record in 2022 on large deliveries to markets in Asia and Africa. Tied to potential reductions in key producers, including India, 2022-23 global output is predicted marginally lower year-on-year, at 514 million tonnes. Underpinned by food requirements, uptake could edge up to a new peak, while inventories are seen contracting further (down 3 million tonnes year-on-year), including a modest drawdown in China.The IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which measures grain and oilseed prices, rose by 0.5% from the previous month but is up nearly 9% year-on-year.