WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for 2023-24 lowered from April its forecasts for domestic beet and cane sugar production and deliveries and raised imports, resulting in higher ending stocks. Initial projections for 2024-25 called for higher domestic production, higher imports from Mexico and steady deliveries with lower ending stocks and a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.7%.    

The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production at 4,649,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 76,541 tonnes, or 1.7%, from April based on higher sugar cane yield and sucrose recovery, but noting “there remains significant downside risk on area that may not be harvested due to inadequate sugar content in the remaining sugar cane.” Imports and domestic use for 2023-24 were unchanged, and exports were forecast at 569,000 tonnes, up 98,000 tonnes, or 21%, resulting in ending stocks at 872,000 tonnes, down 22,000 tonnes from April. 

Mexico’s 2024-25 sugar production was projected at 5,189,000 tonnes, up 540,000 tonnes, or 12%, from 2023-24 as “yield and (sucrose) recovery are expected to be closer to historical trend and area harvested will be more than in 2023-24 but likely far below the 800,000-hectare level initially forecast for recent years.” Ending stocks were projected at 900,000 tonnes in 2024-25.

For the United States, 2023-24 sugar production was forecast at 9,131,000 short tons, raw value, down 84,000 tons, or 0.9%, from April, with beet sugar at 5,095,000 tons, down 49,192 tons, and cane sugar at 4,036,000 tons, down 35,000 tons, based on lower production in Florida. 

Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,438,000 tons, up 21,000 tons from April based on tariff-rate quota imports of 1,798,000 tons, up 23,000 tons because of higher imports from the Philippines, partially offset by a 2,000-ton reduction for Mexico at 497,000 tons. High-tier imports were unchanged at a record 855,000 tons, with other program imports also unchanged from April at 288,000 tons.

Total supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,411,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from April.

Deliveries for food in 2023-24 were forecast at 12,350,000 tons, down 100,000 tons from April based on pace to date. Exports and “other” deliveries were unchanged from April, resulting in total use at 12,653,000 tons, down 100,000 tons.

Ending stocks in 2023-24 were forecast at 1,758,000 tons, up 36,000 tons from April, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13.9%, up from 13.5%.

Initial projections for 2024-25 included US sugar production at 9,232,000 tons, including beet sugar at 5,111,000 tons and cane sugar at 4,121,000 tons. Imports were forecast at 3,028,000 tons, including TRQ imports at the World Trade Organization agreement minimum of 1,415,000 tons (not yet including the specialty sugar TRQ), other program at 200,000 tons, high-tier imports at 216,000 tons, and imports from Mexico at 1,197,000 tons. Total supply was forecast at 14,019,000 tons.