WASHINGTON — The Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products fell 0.2% in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. The index for all food at home, meanwhile, increased 0.8%.
Of the 18 items followed by Milling & Baking News, half posted month-over-month increases and half finished lower.
“The CPI numbers released today represent a worrying spike in prices in several specific categories and once again demonstrate that inflation continues to be difficult to fully tame,” said Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI — The Food Industry Association. “Overall inflation ticked up to 3% in January. The food-at-home CPI increased 0.5%, with nearly two-thirds of this increase driven by the ongoing surge in egg prices. The January CPI is historically elevated relative to other months, and we see this playing out yet again as other categories also saw slight increases. The bright spot in the data is that fruits and vegetables as well as cereals and bakery products witnessed declining prices in January.
“Looking ahead, supply chain challenges could put additional upward pressure on food prices in the near term. The impact of wildfires out West, cold weather in the Midwest, and the ongoing avian flu outbreak bear keeping an eye on in the months to come. It also remains to be seen whether and how potential tariffs may affect the price of food and household goods going forward.
“Consumers are understandably frustrated by elevated food prices. Despite these supply pressures, the food industry is doing everything it can to keep prices as low as possible by reassessing and diversifying supply chains to minimize the impact of these disruptions on food prices.”
The January index for Cereals and Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 356% of the 1982-84 average. For all food at home, the January index was 310.9.
The CPI for Cereals and Cereal Products in January was 282.3, down 2% from December and down 0.6% from January 2024. The index for products within the category included: flour and prepared mixes, 324.2, up 3.1% from December and up 0.8% from a year ago; breakfast cereal, 271, down 3.3% from the previous month and down 0.3% from January 2024; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 289.4, down 1.6% from December and down 0.4% from January 2024.
The price index for Bakery Products in January was 399, up 0.6% from December and up 0.8% from January 2024.
The January index for bread was 238.7, down 0.7% from December and down 0.7% from a year ago. Under the heading, the CPI for white bread was 433, down 0.4% from December and down 1.3% from January 2024. For bread other than white, the index was 464.2, down 0.9% from December and down 0.2% from a year ago.
The price index for fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in January was 241.2, up 1.9% from December and up 2.3% from January 2024. The January index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 375.5, up 0.3% from December and up 1.4% from January 2024. Within the segment, other price indexes included fresh cakes and cupcakes, 385.5, down 2.6% from December and down 0.7% from a year ago; and cookies, 359.5, up 2% from the previous month and up 3.1% from the previous year.
The CPI for other bakery products in January was 354.9, up 0.9% from December and up 0.5% from January 2024. Within the category, other price indexes in January included: fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts, 405.8, down 0.5% from December but up 3.5% from January 2024; crackers and cracker products, 428.9, up 1.2% from December and up 0.8% from January 2024; and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers, 345.4, up 2.2% from December and up 0.6% from a year ago.