PALM SPRINGS, CALIF. — “A lot has changed since we met last year,” Frank Jenkins, president of JSG Commodities, told the record number of attendees Feb. 24 at this year’s annual International Sweetener Colloquium.

At last year’s Colloquium, Jenkins and other presenters addressed concerns about fulfilling steady domestic demand as the US market, a net importer, was expecting a sharp reduction in sugar production from its primary exporter, Mexico, after severe drought ravaged the country’s 2024 sugar cane crop. At the time, Jenkins said the United States may have to rely on high-tier imports to fulfill the country’s growing demand for sugar supplies and achieve the US Department of Agriculture’s baseline 13.5% stocks-to-use ratio. But Jenkins cautioned the group in 2024 that an overreliance on high-tier imports had the potential to weaken the United States’ already established sugar trade agreement with its southern neighbor. Jenkins was right about both the high-tier imports and the strain on the suspension agreement with Mexico, but few in the trade seem to have anticipated the recent drop in domestic use, which tilted the supply-and-demand balance in the opposite direction from a year earlier.

“There’s a lot of sugar washing around and we’re not doing a great job of finding ways to consume it,” Jenkins told 2025 Colloquium attendees, referencing record domestic production and surging high-tier imports all while demand was appearing to contract. “Our beginning stocks were 287,000 tons higher than the previous year, but our use number is 356,000 tons lower.”  

The buildup of supply was definitely pressuring prices lower. At last year’s Colloquium, spot prices for US Midwest bulk refined beet sugar prices were 55¢ to 58¢ a lb, and Northeast cane prices were about 62¢ a lb. This year, spot US Midwest bulk refined beet prices, as of Feb. 26, were 40¢ to 45¢ a lb, and Northeast cane was 54¢ a lb.

Jenkins said the dramatic increase in high-tier imports last year, which surged from 455,000 tons in 2022-23 to 1.231 million tons in 2023-24, was the most concerning element to him since high-tier sugar imports are not controlled by the USDA and can have severe impacts on the US sugar market and its trade alliance with Mexico. In its Feb. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA forecast 2024-25 high-tier imports at 539,000 tons, down 56% from a year earlier, but Jenkins said this number is illusive, as the USDA only recognizes imports of high-tier sugar as it clears customs and enters the country. As a result, Jenkins said this number likely will move higher as the year progresses and may continue to perpetuate the current imbalance of oversupply and low demand while alienating the agreement with Mexico.