WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its March 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report lowered from February its forecast for 2024-25 sugar imports, more than offsetting lower deliveries and higher production, resulting in a modest drop in ending stocks. Minor changes were made to Mexico’s 2024-25 forecasts.     

Sugar production in 2024-25 was forecast at a record-high 9,408,000 short tons, raw value, up 38,000 tons from February and up 97,000 tons from 2023-24. 

Beet sugar production was forecast at a record 5,389,000 tons, up 35,980 tons “on an increase in sucrose recovery from sliced beets more than offsetting a small increase in beet pile shrink and slightly lower sugar from desugared molasses,” the USDA said. “The increase in recovery is due to resolution of certain factory problems limiting earlier season production in the Pacific Northwest. Processors in the Red River Valley are confident of beet storage conditions being manageable through the rest of the season.” Some in the trade still believe the beet sugar forecast is too high because of the need to run a longer processing season in the Red River Valley because of the large 2024 beet crop.

Cane sugar production was forecast at 4,019,000 tons, up 1,916 tons from February, based on an increase of 28,679 tons, to 2,049,000 tons, in Louisiana more than offsetting a decrease of 26,763 tons, to 1,971,000 tons, in Florida, where processors reported lower sugar cane yields.

US sugar imports in 2024-25 were forecast at 2,779,000 tons, down 113,597 tons from February, “mostly on lower imports from Mexico.” As expected, imports from Mexico were forecast at 497,000 tons, down 124,000 tons from February, based on the US Department of Commerce’s final adjustment to the export limit for Mexico under terms of the suspension agreements. High-tier imports were forecast at 550,000 tons, up 10,588 tons from February “on actual entries exceeding last month’s projection,” the USDA said.  

With beginning stocks unchanged, total US sugar supply in 2024-25 was forecast at 14,317,000 tons, down 75,701 tons from February “on decreases in imports more than offsetting an increase in sugar production.”

Sugar deliveries for human consumption were forecast at 12,240,000 tons, down 35,000 tons from February “on lower recent period deliveries than originally projected,” and down 159,000 tons, or 1.3%, from 2023-24. Many in the trade anticipated lower deliveries, with some expecting additional reductions in the coming months. Exports and “other” deliveries were unchanged from February, with total use forecast at 12,445,000 tons, down 35,000 tons.

Sugar ending stocks in 2024-25 were projected at 1,872,000 tons, down 40,701 tons from February and down 257,000 tons, or 12%, from 2023-24. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 15.04%, down from 15.33% in February and down from 16.6% in 2023-24.

There were no changes from February to estimates for 2023-24.

Mostly minor changes were made for Mexico, with 2024-25 sugar production forecast at 4,859,000 tonnes, actual weight, unchanged from February but up 155,000 tonnes from last year. Imports in 2024-25 were forecast at 189,000 tonnes, up 64,000 tonnes from February. Exports were forecast at 957,021 tonnes, up 100,095 tonnes from February. Domestic sugar use in Mexico was forecast at 4,553,000 tonnes (including 4,198,000 tonnes for human consumption), down 30,000 tonnes from February. Ending stocks were projected at 956,000 tonnes, down 6,000 tonnes from February and down 462,000 tonnes, or 37%, from 1,418,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

“Exports under license to the United States are reduced 106,282 tonnes, to 425,127 tonnes, while exports to other destinations are increased 206,377 tonnes, to 531,894 (tonnes),” the USDA said.