KANSAS CITY — Notable drought and dryness have dominated North America since 2020. It was set off by the 22-year solar cycle and a multi-year La Niña that zapped moisture from the middle latitudes creating hardship for farmers and partially contributing to higher inflation. The history books have not been written for our era yet, but there is a very good chance that the drought years in this decade could easily slip into folklore just as the 1930s, 1950s, 1980s and during various times in the 1800s. We are living through historical times.

It is not just drought that will fit into the history books, but some of the other many hardships that have occurred during this time period. The COVID pandemic, wars and rumor of wars, social unrest and political trials also will top the list describing the   2020s. It seems as though we are living life through a history book of rough times. Thinking that way and watching what 2025 has brought so far raises more questions as to whether this era is over or whether we have more to deal with. The weather certainly has not turned the corner — at least not yet.

Relief from the North American drought has occurred in portions of western Canada, but Mexico is still dealing with a very serious drought that has little chance of easing prior to the start of the annual monsoon season in May and June. The North American monsoon has been on hold or at least poorly performing for the past two years. A similar situation plagued South America in 2023 and 2024, but this year seems to be a little different. A more robust monsoon developed in Brazil during their summer season this year offering hope for a better rainy season in Mexico and the southwestern United States this year.

Some scientists attributed the failing monsoons in recent years to the Hunga Tonga Volcano that erupted in 2022.   This, too, was an unprecedented event of this decade, although poorly documented and less understood than most volcanoes because of its underwater occurrence. That volcano was the single greatest eruption in modern times, but some meteorologists continue to contend that it had a very disruptive influence on the earth’s weather, bringing much hotter temperatures and possibly impacting the monsoon flows in both North America and South America. The jury is still out on that one; however, it is possible that the lingering effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption may be working their way out of our atmosphere slowly.

Stratospheric warming events seem to be occurring a little more often and the one that has just occurred brought a quick end to the winter polar vortex that usually hangs out in the arctic until April. The early demise of the polar vortex is not unprecedented and it must be studied more to determine its impact on spring and summer weather around the world. With less cold trapped in the higher latitudes over the next several weeks there will be a potential for more frequent bouts of severe weather because of clashing air masses of great difference. Cold air already has moved southward through North America a few times this winter and early spring to induce some wild weather, including snow on the Gulf of Mexico Coast and temperatures into the single digits Fahrenheit in Louisiana.

The clashing cold and warm air masses moving through North America is really nothing new, though some of the intensity of weather extremes has been greater than some folks can remember. Is this extreme weather cyclical or not? Certainly, weather records show much volatility throughout history, but there have been periods of tranquil weather as well. Concern has been rising this winter and now early spring that the volatility in weather is going to continue with a few wild storm systems coming up this spring and amazing temperature swings. Some of that already has been seen and that raises the question as to whether the 2020s drought is really over. There are some folks looking for a return of the Gleissburg drought cycle that supposedly will bring extremes like those seen in 1936 and 1847 back in 2025. There is not much data to deal with in confirming the Gleissburg drought cycle, although watching the weather this winter and spring has certainly raised some concern.

Temperature extremes this winter have been amazing with subzero degree temperatures occurring in the central parts of the nation and just a few days later highs in the 60s and 70s have occurred. There has been a general lack of moisture in the US Great Plains, northern Mexico and parts of Canada’s Prairies this winter. That partially was driven by the La Niña-like conditions that occurred in recent months, the negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the lunar cycle. La Niña is dissipating while negative PDO remains and the lunar cycle is not providing much incentive for change through the heart of spring. That suggests weather extremes resulting from low relative humidity and dryness in the heart of North America are likely to prevail at least through the first half of spring. Look for intense low pressure centers creating more intense windstorms, blizzards, flooding rain events and severe thunderstorm outbreaks along with wild temperature swings. All of this is similar to the weather in 1936 and it smells of continuing dryness and drought. It is just possible that we have not seen the end of this decade of extremes.