Market Insights by Sosland Publishing

WASHINGTON — Sweeping new tariffs announced by the White House on April 2 have the potential to dramatically increase the cost of ingredients and finished food products in the United States, from coffee and chocolate to cheese and olive oil.

Among the measures, President Donald Trump announced a new universal minimum tariff of 10% on all goods imported to the United States, including food and agricultural products, effective April 5. The White House also unveiled “retaliatory tariffs” targeting more than 50 countries, with individual rates from 10% up to 49%.

White House officials described the new levies as stacking with existing ones. For example, in the case of China (the United States’ No. 3 trading partner in 2024), the White House’s new 34% tariff on all Chinese imports will be added on top of the additional 20% tariff Trump has placed on China since the beginning of his second term, amounting to an additional 54% levy on Chinese goods.

Among other top trading partners on the list, Japan (No. 4 in import trade with the United States) now faces an additional 24% tariff, and a 20% tariff was added to the European Union, including Germany (No. 5), Ireland (No. 8) and Italy (No. 10). The White House added a 46% tariff for Vietnam (No. 6), a 25% tariff for South Korea (No. 7) and 26% for India (No. 9).

“While we have witnessed several positive steps that have reduced unnecessary regulatory burdens on our industry, we are concerned that today’s tariff announcement could bring rising prices, a squeeze on household budgets and reduced competitiveness for American companies relative to international competitors,” said Leslie Sarasin, president and chief executive officer of FMI – The Food Industry Association. “The uncertainty and inflationary pressures created by reciprocal tariffs are a major worry for American consumers and our food industry member companies that operate on slim 1.6% retail and 7.5% food manufacturing net margins.

 “Our food system is intricately linked with global markets — including products not grown in the United States like bananas or seasonal items — which helps keep prices down while providing American shoppers year-round access to safe, nutritious food.”

Notably absent from the new tariff list were Mexico (No. 1) and Canada (No. 2), the United States’ top two trading partners last year. The 25% tariff the White House added to those nations in February is still in play, but most food and agricultural products are exempt under the existing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which Trump negotiated during his first term.

In a statement following the tariff announcement, the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) praised the White House’s decision to keep fresh fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico and Canada exempt. The volume of fresh fruit imports from those nations is about twice that of fresh vegetables, the IFPA noted, with bananas and tomatoes leading the way. The United States also relies heavily on Mexico and Canada for imports of pineapples, grapes, melons, lemons, blueberries, mangos, bell peppers, cucumbers and avocados.

“IFPA appreciates the administration’s decision to allow continued trade of fresh produce and florals covered under the USMCA,” said Cathy Burns, CEO of the IFPA. “The global trade of fresh produce is essential to the health and well-being of people in every nation.

“Targeted use of tariffs can be a tool for addressing inequities between trading partners, but the broad application of this blunt tool often disrupts markets, raises consumer costs and places unnecessary strain on growers and producers across the supply chain.”

One category of goods not exempted from tariffs under the USMCA is coffee and coffee products. According to International Trade Association data, Canada was the United States’ fourth-largest importer by value in that category in 2023 ($568 million), and Mexico was seventh ($364 million). Those imports now are subject to the 25% levy.

The new tariffs announced April 2 also targeted several of the world’s top coffee-producing nations. Among them, Brazil (No. 1 in global production last year) now faces a 10% tariff, Vietnam 46%, Colombia 10%, Indonesia 32% and Ethiopia 10%. Aside from marginal coffee farming in Hawaii, the United States has no domestic coffee production.

The world’s biggest cocoa producers also face steep new import levies. The White House added a 21% tariff for the Ivory Coast (No. 1 in global cocoa production), 10% for Ghana (No. 2) and 32% for Indonesia (No. 3). And finished chocolate products from leading producers in Europe now are subject to additional levies: 20% for EU nations, 31% for Swiss chocolate and 10% for chocolate from the United Kingdom.

Olive oil, cheese and alcoholic beverages including wine and beer from European nations also will get more expensive under the new tariffs. The United States was the largest export market for combined EU goods in 2024, taking more than 20% of the bloc’s exports, according to the EU Commission.

Data from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture shows that, over the past two decades, US food manufacturers have increased European imports by value by nearly 400%, from $5.8 billion in 2005 to more than $20 billion last year. Top import categories include alcoholic beverages, chocolate, cheese, olive oil and fruit and vegetable preparations.

On the export side, the EU and other nations have promised strong retaliation to added US levies, placing US exports at risk. The EU was the second-largest export market for US goods last year, taking more than 13% of all US products shipped overseas. Top US food and agricultural goods sent across the Atlantic include tree nuts ($2.72 billion), soybeans ($2.43 billion), alcoholic beverages ($1.23 billion) and prepared foods ($455 million), according to the FAS.

EU nations imported more than 27% of all US almonds, walnuts and pistachios last year, with India and China also accounting for more than $1 billion apiece. Trade retaliation from those nations could choke the flow of exports, harming US producers, but also could lower nut ingredient costs for US food manufacturers.

US soybean prices also could collapse. Together, China ($12.84 billion) and the EU ($2.43 billion) accounted for 62% of all US soybean exports (of $24.58 billion total) in 2024. Any additional tariff retaliation could further shift soybean buying to Brazil, the world’s top producer, and leave US growers with oversupply. CME Group May soybean futures fell near $10 per bu in trading following the White House tariff announcement.

One potential positive for food manufacturers in the tariff news: Only alcoholic beverages (No. 11) ranked among the top 20 products EU nations exported to the United States last year. The top export category overwhelmingly was pharmaceutical and medicinal products, according to US Census Bureau Data.

Imports of semaglutide, a key ingredient used in the formulation of GLP-1 weight loss drugs including Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus, accounted for $15.6 billion in imports from the EU, ranking ahead of all food, beverage and agricultural products. Those imports now face a tariff of 20% or more, potentially increasing costs and disincentivizing their popularity among US patients. Users of the drugs, who account for up to 10% of the US adult population according to various studies, tend to spend less on packaged foods and snacks, and their growing popularity in recent years has hurt the food industry’s bottom line.

Still, the new tariffs’ power to increase input costs for food producers, from ingredients to packaging — a 25% levy was added for aluminum cans, though it is not stacking with other tariffs, White House officials said — presents a broadly challenging environment in the weeks and months to come.

“As the largest domestic manufacturing sector by employment, supporting more than 22 million American jobs and contributing $2.5 trillion to the US GDP, the consumer packaged goods industry already manufactures the majority of its products here in the United States,” said Tom Madrecki, Consumer Brands Association’s (CBA) vice president of supply chain resiliency, in response to the White House announcement. “However, there are critical ingredients and inputs that need to be imported due to scarce availability domestically. No amount of tariffs will bring these inputs back to the United States.

“However well-intended, the success of the president’s America First Trade Policy must recognize the US companies that are already doing it the right way but depend on imports for specific ingredients and inputs that cannot be sourced domestically. Reciprocal tariffs that do not reflect ingredient and input availability concerns will inevitably raise costs, limit consumer access to affordable products and unintentionally harm iconic American manufacturers.”