WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast a 33% increase from March in 2024-25 high-tier imports, more than offsetting lower cane sugar production and boosting the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 16.2%. The USDA made no changes to 2024-25 delivery forecasts, but raised 2023-24 delivery estimates by 29,000 tons, which was mostly offset by higher “other program” (re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs) imports. There were no changes made to Mexico’s supply-and-demand forecasts.     

Sugar production in 2024-25 was forecast at 9,369,000 short tons, raw value, down 39,316 tons from March (about equal to the 38,000-ton increase in the March WASDE) but up 56,000 tons from 2023-24, which was raised 2,000 tons to 9,313,000 tons. Beet sugar production in 2024-25 was forecast at 5,391,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from March, with cane sugar at 3,978,000 tons, down 41,000 tons, all of which was in Florida, based on “lower sugar cane yields reported by processors,” the USDA said. The USDA in its latest assessment of the US Drought Monitor said 100% of Florida sugar area was in some level of drought. If realized, 2024-25 beet and total sugar production would be record high.

US sugar imports in 2024-25 were forecast at 2,961,000 tons, up 181,000 tons from March, with the increase all in high-tier imports at 731,000 tons. Tariff-rate quota at 1,533,000 tons, other program at 200,000 tons and Mexico at 497,000 tons all were unchanged from March.

“Raw high-tier tariff imports entering the United States from Oct. 1 through the first week of April totaled 261,758 short tons, raw value, an increase of 88,070 (tons) over the previous month,” the USDA said. “Refined high-tier tariff imports totaled 237,104 tons over the same period for a monthly average of 39,517 tons. A decrease in the pace is posited as more likely than an increase or unchanged due to historically high current levels of refined beet and cane sugar that could increase competition for refined high-tier from the domestically produced product. Monthly entries for the remaining six months of the fiscal year are projected, therefore, at 75% of the first six-month average, implying total high-tier refined at 414,931 tons. Molasses imported as an input in sugar refining is unchanged at a sugar-equivalence of 54,645 tons.”

With beginning stocks up 2,000 tons from March, higher imports more than offset lower production, resulting in forecast total supply at 14,461,000 tons, up 143,758 tons from March but down 534,000 tons from 2023-24.

All sugar use forecasts for 2024-25 were unchanged from March, with deliveries for human consumption at 12,240,000 tons, exports at 100,000 tons, “other” at 105,000 tons and miscellaneous at zero. Total sugar use was unchanged at 12,445,000 tons but was down 401,000 tons from 2023-24 based on lower exports, lower deliveries for human use and lower miscellaneous use.

Sugar ending stocks in 2024-25 were forecast at 2,016,000 tons, up 144,000 tons from March but down 115,000 tons from 2023-24. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 16.2%, up from 15% in March but down slightly from 16.6% in 2023-24.

For 2023-24, the USDA raised estimated beet sugar production by 2,000 tons, to 9,313,000 tons, with cane sugar unchanged. Imports were estimated at 3,840,000 tons, up 29,000 tons due to a like increase in other program imports, estimated at 300,000 tons. Total supply was estimated at 14,995,000 tons, up 28,000 tons from March. Deliveries for food were estimated at 12,428,000 tons, up 29,000 tons from March, with no other changes in use, resulting in a like increase in total use at 12,864,000 tons. Ending stocks were raised by 2,000 tons, to 2,131,000 tons, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio was unchanged at 16.6%.

With the increase in 2023-24 sugar deliveries for human consumption, the unchanged 2024-25 forecast is down 188,000 tons, or 1.5%, from 2023-24 and is down 233,000 tons, or 1.9%, from 2022-23.