U.S.D.A. raises 2012 wheat carryover forecast to 837 million bus
BakingBusiness.com, October 25, 2011
by Jay Sjerven

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Oct. 12 forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2012, at 837 million bus, up 76 million bus, or 10%, from 761 million bus as projected in September but down 25 million bus, or 3%, from 862 million bus in 2011. The projected carryover was above the range of pre-report trade estimates whose average was 747 million bus.

U.S. wheat production in 2011 was estimated at 2,008 million bus, down 69 million bus, or 3%, from 2,077 million bus as the September forecast and down 199 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. U.S. wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, up 10 million bus from the September forecast and up 24% from 97 million bus in 2010-11. Total wheat supply for the current year was projected at 2,990 million bus, down 57 million bus, or 2%, from September and down 289 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bus, unchanged from September but up 14 million bus from 926 million bus in 2010-11. Seed use was projected at 78 million bus, down 4 million bus from September but up 7 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bus, down 80 million bus, or 33%, from 240 million bus in September but up 28 million bus from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Many analysts viewed the feed use forecast with some skepticism as it thought wheat feeding has been heavier than inferred by the new forecast.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bus, down 50 million bus from 1,025 million bus in September and down 314 million bus, or 24%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11. The U.S.D.A. said in commentary accompanying the trade forecast, “Tighter spring wheat supplies in the United States boost export prospects for Canada, and larger exportable supplies in Australia and strong shipments by Russia increase competition in the world market.”

Total wheat use in 2011-12 was projected at 2,153 million bus, down 134 million bus, or 6%, from 2,287 million bus in September and down 264 million bus, or 11%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.10@7.90 a bus, down from $7.35@8.35 as the September forecast and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. projected the June 1, 2012, inventory of hard winter wheat at 298 million bus, up 26 million bus from September but down 88 million bus, or 23%, from 386 million bus in 2011. The soft red winter wheat 2012 carryover was projected at 244 million bus, up 47 million bus from September and up 73 million bus, or 43%, from 171 million bus in 2011. The hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 157 million bus, down 1 million bus from September and down 28 million bus, or 15%, from 185 million bus in 2011.

The U.S. 2012 white wheat carryover was projected at 111 million bus, up 5 million bus from September and up 26 million bus, or 31%, from 85 million bus in 2011. The U.S. durum carryover was projected at 28 million bus, unchanged from September and down 7 million bus, or 20%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. projected world wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 at a 10-year high 202.37 million tonnes, up 7.78 million tonnes from September and up 6.77 million tonnes, or 3%, from 195.6 million tonnes in 2010-11. World wheat production in 2011-12 was projected at 681.2 million tonnes, up 3.08 million tonnes from September and up 33.04 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.16 million tonnes in the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 674.43 million tonnes, down 2.43 million tonnes from September but up 21.13 million tonnes, or 3%, from 653.3 million tonnes in 2010-11. World wheat exports were projected at 135.3 million tonnes, up 3.41 million tonnes from September and up 4.23 million tonnes from 131.07 million tonnes in the prior year.


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