Wheat, corn, soybean carryover down from March
Wheat, corn, soybean carryover down from March
BakingBusiness.com, April 09, 2009
by Ron Sterk

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered from March projected U.S. 2009 carryover of wheat, corn and soybeans while global ending stocks were raised for wheat but lowered for corn and soybeans.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, was projected at 696 million bus, down 16 million bus, or 2%, from 712 million bus in March but up 390 million bus, or 127%, from 306 million bus in 2008.

Wheat carryover was near pre-report trade expectations but U.S.D.A. carryover projections for corn and soybeans were below trade expectations.

Total wheat supply in 2008-09 was projected at 2,930 million bus, up 5 million bus from March and up 310 million bus, or 12%, from 2,620 million bus in 2007-08. Estimated wheat production was unchanged from March at 2,500 million bus while imports were raised 5 million bus, to 125 million bus.

Total wheat use in 2008-09 was projected at 2,234 million bus, up 21 million bus from March but down 80 million bus, or 3%, from 2,314 million bus a year earlier.

Domestic wheat use in 2008-09 was projected at 1,254 million bus, up 21 million bus from March and up 204 million bus, or 19%, from 2007-08. Food use of wheat was projected at 925 million bus, unchanged from March and down 22 million bus from 2007-08. Seed use was projected at 79 million bus, up 1 million bus from March but down 9 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 250 million bus, up 20 million bus from March and compared with 15 million bus in 2007-08.

U.S. wheat exports in 2008-09 were projected at 980 million bus, unchanged from March and down 284 million bus, or 22%, from 1,264 million bus in 2007-08.

The average farm price of wheat in 2008-09 was forecast to fall within a range of $6.80@6.90 a bu, compared with $6.70@6.90 in March, $6.48 in 2007-08 and $4.26 in 2006-07.

U.S. wheat by class carryover was lowered from March for all classes except soft red wheat, which was raised 1 million bus, to 159 million bus, and white wheat, which was unchanged at 62 million bus. Projected carryover of hard winter wheat was projected at 276 million bus, down 2 million bus from March, hard spring at 173 million bus, down 9 million bus, and durum at 26 million bus, down 5 million bus.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected at 682.05 million tonnes, down 2.38 million tonnes from March but up 12% from 609.06 million tonnes in 2007-08. The production decrease was mainly due to reductions in Algeria, Ethiopia, Egypt and Chile. World wheat use in 2008-09 was projected at 646.33 million tonnes, down 2.38 million tonnes from March but up 5% from 614.86 million tonnes in 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 158.1 million tonnes, up 2.25 million tonnes from March and up 29% from 122.38 million tonnes in 2007-08.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 1,700 million bus, down 40 million bus, or 2%, from 1,740 million bus in March but up 76 million bus, or 5%, from 1,624 million bus in 2008. Total U.S. corn supply in 2008-09 was projected at 13,740 million bus, unchanged from March but down 622 million bus, or 4%, from 14,362 million bus a year earlier.

Total corn use in 2008-09 was projected at 12,040 million bus, up 40 million bus from March but down 697 million bus, or 5%, from 12,737 million bus a year earlier. Domestic corn use was projected at 10,340 million bus in 2008-09, up 40 million bus from March and up 38 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 5,350 million bus, up 50 million bus from March but down 588 million bus from last year. Food, seed and industrial use (other than for fuel or beverage alcohol) was projected at 1,290 million bus, down 10 million bus from March, due to lower projected use for starch, and down 47 million bus from 1,337 million bus in 2007-08.

"Corn use for starch is projected down 10% from 2007-08 as declining demand for construction materials and paper products reduce demand for starch," the U.S.D.A. said.

Projected use of corn to make ethanol was unchanged from March at 3,700 million bus and was up 22% from 3,026 million bus in 2007-08.

U.S. corn exports were projected at 1,700 million bus, unchanged from March but down 736 million bus, or 30%, from 2,436 million bus in 2007-08.

The average corn price was projected to range from $4@4.40 a bu in 2008-09, up 10c from March and compared with $4.20 a bu last year and $3.04 a bu in 2006-07.

World 2008-09 corn production was projected at 786.45 million tonnes, down 650,000 tonnes from March and down 4.46 million tonnes from 2007-08. Global corn use was projected at 772.74 million tonnes, up 290,000 tonnes from March and up 2.7 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 143.33 million tonnes, down 1.29 million tonnes from March but up 13.72 million tonnes, or 11%, from 2007-08.

Projected carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was 165 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 11%, from March and down 40 million bus from 205 million bus in 2008. Total supply was projected at 3,176 million bus, up 3 million bus from March due to a 3-million-bu increase in imports, to 12 million bus, but down 85 million bus, or 3%, from 3,261 million bus a year earlier.

Total use was projected at 3,011 million bus, up 23 million bus from March but down 45 million bus from 3,056 million bus in 2007-08. U.S. crushings were projected at 1,635 million bus, down 5 million bus from March and down 166 million bus from a year earlier. Projected exports were increased by 25 million bus from March, to 1,210 million bus, and were 49 million bus above a year ago.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $9.25@10.05 a bu in 2008-09, up from $8.85@9.85 projected in March and compared with $10.10 in 2007-08 and $6.43 in 2006-07.

Global 2008-09 soybean production was projected at 218.76 million tonnes, down 4.51 million tonnes from March and down 2.08 million tonnes from 2007-08. Soybean production in Argentina was projected at 39 million tonnes, down 4 million tons due to lower harvested area and yields, the U.S.D.A. said. Production also was reduced for Paraguay and India. Total use was projected at 225.4 million tonnes, down 340,000 tonnes from March and down 4.35 million tonnes from last year. Ending stocks were projected at 45.84 million tonnes, down 4.11 million tonnes from March and down 7.25 million tonnes from 2007-08.

Global rice production was projected at a record 441.10 million tonnes, up 150,000 tonnes from March and up 9.18 million tonnes from 431.92 million tonnes a year earlier. World rice consumption was projected at a record 433.52 million tonnes, up 90,000 tonnes from March and up 5.25 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 86.13 million tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes from March and up 7.59 million tonnes from 2007-08.


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