U.S.D.A. raises 2012 wheat carryover

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 12 projected the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2012, at 761 million bus, up 90 million bus from the August forecast but down 100 million bus, or 12%, from 861 million bus in 2011 and compared with 976 million bus in 2010. The higher carryover forecast resulted from lowered projections for 2011-12 wheat food use and exports and a 10-million-bu increae in projected wheat imports.

The September report contained no fresh estimates on U.S. wheat production. Updated wheat crop estimates will be published on Sept. 30 in the department’s Small Grains Summary 2011. U.S. wheat production was projected at 2,077 million bus in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which was down 131 million bus, or 6% from 2,208 million bus as the 2010 outturn.

The E.R.S. raised its forecast for 2011-12 wheat imports by 10 million bus because of a larger-than-expected exportable supply in Canada. Imports now were projected at 110 million bus, up 13 million bus from 2010-11. The import increase was divided equally between hard red spring wheat and durum.

Total wheat supply in the United States in 2011-12 was projected at 3,047 million bus, up 10 million bus from August because of larger projected imports but down 234 million bus, or 7%, from 3,281 million bus in the preceding year.

Domestic use of wheat in the current crop year was projected at 1,262 million bus, down 5 million from the August forecast but up 131 million bus, or 12%, from 1,131 million bus in 2010-11. Food use of wheat was projected at 940 million bus, down 5 million bus from the August forecast but up 14 million bus, or 2%, from 926 million bus in 2010-11. The U.S.D.A. attributed the reduction in the food use forecast for 2011-12 “to revisions to 2010-11 based on the latest and final U.S. Bureau of Census mill grind estimates and reflecting reduced prospects for per capita flour consumption during calendar year 2011.”

The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. wheat exports in 2011-12 at 1,025 million bus, down 75 million bus from the August projection and down 264 million bus, or 20%, from 1,289 million bus in the preceding year. The decrease was attributed to larger supplies and exports expected for Canada and the European Union.

The 2012 carryover of hard red winter wheat was projected at 272 million bus, up 50 million bus from the August forecast but down 114 million bus, or 30%, from 386 million bus in 2011. The upward adjustment from August reflected a 50-million-bu drop in forecast exports in the current year to 440 million bus.

The hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 158 million bus, up 15 million bus from August but down 27 million bus, or 15%, from 185 million bus in 2011. The increase from August reflected a 5-million-bu hike in projected imports and a 10-million-bu drop in 2011-12 exports to 260 million bus.

The soft red winter wheat carryover was unchanged from August at 197 million bus, which was up 27 million bus, or 16%, from 170 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. projected the white wheat carryover in 2012 at 106 million bus, up 10 million bus from the August forecast and up 21 million bus, or 25%, from 85 million bus in 2011. The adjustment from August resulted from a 10-million-bu reduction in the export forecast for the current year to 180 million bus.

The durum carryover for 2012 was projected at 28 million bus, up 15 million bus from the August forecast but down 7 million bus, or 20%, from 35 million bus in 2011. Compared with the August 2011-12 forecasts, durum imports were raised 5 million bus, to 40 million bus, while U.S. domestic use of durum in 2011-12 was lowered 5 million bus, to 85 million bus, and exports were lowered 5 million bus, to 20 million bus.

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