WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast the carryover of U.S. sugar on Oct. 1, 2019, (2018-19 ending stocks) at 1,747,000 short tons, raw value, down 28,000 tons, or 1.6%, from its August forecast as lower beet sugar production and a slight drop in imports more than offset lower deliveries for food.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2018-19 ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.2%, down slightly from 14.4% forecast in August and compared with 16.1% in 2017-18.
U.S. beet sugar production was forecast at 4,957,000 tons in 2018-19, down 51,144 tons from August, with cane sugar unchanged at 4,028,000 tons.
Imports were forecast at 3,089,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from August with tariff rate quota imports at 1,582,000 tons, down 22,046 tons, and “other program” imports at 420,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. High-tier imports were unchanged from August at 90,000 tons, with imports from Mexico also unchanged at 997,000 tons.
Domestic deliveries were forecast at 12,300,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from August due to a like decrease in deliveries for food, forecast at 12,175,000 tons, “based on a slower-than-expected pace.” In August, deliveries had been raised by 75,000 tons from July.
U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2019-20 were forecast at 1,666,000 tons, down 33,000 tons, or 1.9%, from the August forecast and down 81,000 tons, or 4.6%, from 2018-19. The ending S.-T.-U. ratio was adjusted to 13.5%, down from 13.7% in August.
U.S. sugar production in 2019-20 was forecast at 9,134,000 tons, down 174,315 tons, or 1.9%, from the August forecast but up 149,000 tons, or 1.7%, from 2018-19. Beet sugar production for 2019-20 was projected at 5,005,000 tons, down 174,315 tons, or 3.4%, from August, with cane sugar unchanged at 4,129,000 tons.
Total imports in 2019-20 were forecast at 3,125,000 tons, up 144,000 tons from the August forecast, as a 149,000-ton increase for Mexico, forecast at 1,118,000 tons, more than offset a slight reduction in T.R.Q. imports, forecast at 1,587,000 tons.
Total supply was forecast at 14,006,000 tons, down 58,000 tons from August and down 76,000 tons from 14,082,000 tons in 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. forecast domestic deliveries of sugar in 2019-20 at 12,305,000 tons, including deliveries for food at 12,200,000 tons, both down 25,000 tons from August, accounting for the decline in 2018-19 deliveries.
The U.S.D.A left forecasts for Mexico unchanged for 2018-19. For 2019-20, sugar production was forecast at 6,200,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 48,000 tonnes from August and down 226,000 tonnes from 2018-19, “based on reports of drought in several producing areas.” Exports were lowered by 48,000 tonnes, to 1,494,000 tons, leaving ending stocks unchanged from August and from 2018-19 at 995,000 tonnes.