WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report made mostly minor, expected changes to its sugar supply forecasts for this year and for 2021-22 with no changes made in domestic sugar use forecasts for either year.
US 2020-21 (ending Sept. 30) sugar production was forecast at 9,234,000 short tons, raw value, down 51,945 tons, or 0.6%, from the July forecast but up 1,085,000 tons, or 13%, from 2019-20. Beet sugar production for the current year was forecast at 5,063,000 tons, down 51,000 tons, or 1%, from July and cane sugar outturn was forecast at 4,171,000 tons, down 1,000 tons.
The lower beet sugar forecast was “mostly on a lower share of crop year 2021-22 beet sugar production occurring in August and September 2021,” the USDA said. “That portion of processor-reported decreases stemming from later-than-anticipated harvest start dates is expected to be accounted for in the 2021-22 fiscal year.”
Total sugar imports for 2020-21 were forecast at 3,177,000 tons, up 38,607 tons from July as lower imports from Mexico were more than offset by slightly higher tariff rate quota and other program (re-export) imports.
“The raw sugar TRQ shortfall is reduced by 11,134 tons to 75,721 after entry of sugar from the Philippines previously expected not to enter,” the USDA said. “Re-export imports are increased by 45,000 tons to 245,000 on the import pace from Customs and Border Protection ACE data. Imports from Mexico that were part of the ‘other sugar export limit’ increase made in April are decreased by 17,527 tons due to inadequate supplies of below 99.2 pol sugar in Mexico.”
“There are no policy announcements concerning imports at this time,” the USDA said.
Total sugar supply for 2020-21 was forecast at 14,028,000 tons, down 14,000 tons from the July forecast.
Exports for 2020-21 were increased by 10,000 tons to 45,000 tons based on pace to date.
There were no changes made to domestic use forecasts for 2020-21, with deliveries for food use at 12,125,000 tons, down 0.8% from 2019-20. Ending stocks were forecast of 1,753,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from July, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.3%, down from 14.5% in July.
Adjustments to 2021-22 forecasts were incorporated changes from 2020-21. Beginning stocks were lowered 24,000 tons. Production was forecast at 9,048,000 tons, up 40,000 tons from July based on beet sugar at 5,078,000 tons, up 45,000 tons, and cane sugar at 3,970,000 tons, down 5,000 tons based on lower production in Texas.
There were no changes for forecast imports, exports or domestic use for 2021-22.
Total sugar supply for 2021-22 was forecast at 13,937,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from the July forecast.
Ending stocks were forecast at 1,672,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from July, boosting the stocks-to-use ratio to 13.6% from 13.5%.
Changes in forecasts for Mexico for both this year and next year also were minor. For 2020-21, sugar production was estimated at 5,715,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 7,000 tonnes from July, exports at 1,357,000 tonnes, down 9,000 tonnes, and domestic use at 4,405,000 tonnes, up 14,000 tonnes. Ending stocks for this year were forecast at 916,000 tonnes, up 3,000 tonnes from the July estimate. For next year, production was unchanged at 5,809,000 tonnes. Exports were reduced 14,000 tonnes, offset by a like increase in domestic use. Ending stocks were raised 3,000 tonnes to 916,000 tonnes.