WASHINGTON — A further reduction to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s already anemic wheat export forecast for 2015-16 produced a 25-million-bu hike in the department’s projection for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2016, to 966 million bus, which would be the largest carryover since 976 million bus in 2010.
The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. wheat exports in 2015-16 at 775 million bus, down 25 million bus from the January projection and down 79 million bus, or 9%, from 854 million bus in 2014-15. The 2015-16 wheat outgo was forecast to be the lowest since 610 million bus in 1971-72, the year before the 1972-73 U.S.-Soviet wheat deal that pushed U.S. wheat exports above 1 billion bus for the first time in history.
The U.S.D.A. said in commentary accompanying the updated supply-and-demand forecasts, “U.S. exports are lowered on increased international competition, especially from Canada.” In its 2015-16 world wheat supply-and-demand projections, the U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for Canadian wheat exports to 22 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from the January projection, while lowering U.S. wheat exports to 21.09 million tonnes, down 0.68 million tonnes from the January outlook. Canada would supplant the United States as the world’s third-largest wheat exporter in 2015-16 following the European Union and Russia.
All other U.S. all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for the current year were unchanged from January.
The U.S. wheat supply for 2015-16 was forecast at 2,924 million bus, up 158 million bus, or 6%, from 2,766 million bus in 2014-15. The 2015 carryover was 752 million bus, the 2015 crop was 2,052 million bus and wheat imports in 2015-16 were forecast at 120 million bus.
On the demand side of the balance sheet, domestic demand was forecast unchanged from January at 1,183 million bus, up 24 million bus from 2014-15, with food use of wheat at a record 967 million bus (up 9 million bus from 2014-15), feed use of wheat at 150 million bus (up 28 million bus) and seed use of wheat at 66 million bus (down 13 million bus).
Total wheat disappearance in 2015-16 was forecast at 1,958 million bus, down 25 million bus from the January projection and down 56 million bus, or 3%, from 2,014 million bus in 2014-15.
The U.S.D.A.’s 2016 carryover forecasts by class with adjustments from January included: hard red winter wheat at 429 million bus, up 4 million from January on a 5-million-bu cut to the 2015-16 export forecast to 220 million bus; hard red spring wheat at 278 million bus, up 10 million on a 10-million-bu drop in forecast 2015-16 exports to 255 million bus; soft red winter wheat at 170 million bus, up 5 million bus on a 5-million-bu drop in the export forecast to 125 million bus; white winter wheat at 55 million bus, up 1 million bus on a 1-million-bu reduction in domestic use to 100 million bus, and durum at 34 million bus, up 5 million bus on a 5-million-bu reduction to the export forecast to 35 million bus.
