LONDON — The International Grains Council (I.G.C.) on Sept. 29 raised its forecast for world wheat production in 2016-17 to 747 million tonnes, up from its August forecast of 743 million tonnes and compared with the record outturn of 735.8 million tonnes in 2015-16.
The I.G.C. forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 231 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous projection issued in August and up 13 million tonnes from 218 million tonnes in 2015-16.
The I.G.C. left its projection for total grains production at 2.069 billion tonnes, unchanged from a month ago, but up from 2.002 billion in 2015-16.
“An anticipated record maize harvest accounts for over four-fifths of the 67-million-tonne year-over-year gain, with the wheat crop seen reaching a fresh peak, too,” the I.G.C. said.
Total consumption was raised to 2.049 billion tonnes from 2.046 billion.
“Grains consumption is expected to surpass 2 billion tonnes for only the second time, led by strong growth in feed use,” the I.G.C. noted. “Given heavy supplies, much of the expansion in global feeding (34 million tonnes) will be for maize (29 million). Other feed grains will need to stay competitively priced to capture any demand, including this season’s unusually large availabilities of low/medium grade wheat.”
Further improvement in the outlook for U.S. yields led the I.G.C. to project a slight uptick in 2016-17 world soybean production, to 329 million tonnes from 325 million a month ago. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was raised to 331 million tonnes from 327 million. The I.G.C. said global trade is expected to climb to a record 137 million tonnes, driven by demand from Asia.
The 2016-17 world outturn for rice is expected to total 482 million tonnes, down from 484 million a month ago. The I.G.C. cited slight downward adjustments for some producers, notably Thailand.
World grains and oilseeds export prices were pressured by increasingly heavy spot supplies, the I.G.C. said, leading to a nearly 5% decline in the I.G.C. Grains and Oilseeds Index (G.O.I.).“Seasonal factors contributed to declines, with results from the advancing northern hemisphere rowcrop harvests confirming good overall yields,” the I.G.C. said. “While some buyers saw an opportunity to extend coverage, others were reluctant to commit to fresh deals given the possibility for further weakness.”