WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its initial supply-and-demand outlook for wheat in 2020-21 said there would be smaller supplies, decreased domestic use and lower ending stocks than forecast for the current year.
The USDA on May 12 forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2021, at 909 million bus, down 69 million bus, or 7%, from 978 million bus as the projection for 2020. If the forecast is realized, the 2021 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 752 million bus in 2015 and compare with the recent five-year average carryover supply of 1,063 million bus.
The USDA projected wheat production in 2020 at 1,866 million bus, down 54 million bus, or 3%, from 1,920 million bus in 2019. The USDA in its May Crop Production report forecast the 2020 all-winter wheat crop at 1,255 million bus. That forecast was the first survey-based winter wheat projection of the season. This inferred a spring wheat including durum production forecast at 611 million bus based on the USDA’s durum and other-spring plantings forecasts as contained in the Prospective Plantings report issued at the end of March, average abandonment and trendline yields.
Wheat imports in 2020-21 were forecast at 140 million bus compared with the projection for the current year at 105 million bus.
The total wheat supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 2,984 million bus, down 121 million bus, or 4%, from 3,105 million bus in 2019-20.
The USDA projected food use of wheat in 2020-21 at a record 964 million bus, up 2 million bus from the forecast for 2019-20. The food use projection for 2019-20 was raised 7 million bus from April because the National Agricultural Statistics Service in its Flour Milling Products report issued May 1 indicated that “an unusually large volume of wheat was ground for flour in the first quarter of 2020.”
The USDA projected seed use of wheat in 2020-21 at 61 million bus, up 1 million from 2019-20.
Feed and residual use of wheat in 2020-21 was projected at 100 million bus, down 35 million bus from 2019-20.
Domestic use of wheat in 2020-21 was projected at 1,125 million bus, down 32 million bus from 1,157 million bus as forecast for 2019-20.
The USDA forecast wheat exports in 2020-21 at 950 million bus, down 20 million bus from the projection for 2019-20. The latter projection at 970 million bus was lowered 15 million bus from the April outlook.
Total wheat disappearance in the United States in 2020-21 was forecast at 2,075 million bus, down 52 million bus, or 2%, from the projection for the current year at 2,127 million bus.
The USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2020-21 at $4.60 a bu, unchanged from the projection for the current year and compared with $5.16 in 2018-19.