WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture on Aug 12 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2021, at 925 million bus, down 17 million bus from the July projection and down 119 million bus, or 11%, from 1,044 million bus in 2020. If the projection is realized, the 2021 carryover would be the smallest in six years.
The USDA projected the 2020-21 wheat supply at 3,011 million bus, up 4 million bus from July as all-wheat production was raised 14 million bus, to 1,838 million bus, and imports were lowered 10 million bus, to 130 million bus.
Wheat disappearance in 2020-21 was forecast at 2,086 million bus, up 21 million bus from July and up 25 million bus from 2019-20.
Food use of wheat in 2020-21 was projected at 960 million bus, down 4 million from the July outlook and down 2 million bus from 962 million in 2019-20. The USDA said that the reduction in the food use forecast from July was made considering “food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19.”
Other 2020-21 domestic use forecasts were unchanged at 61 million bus for seed and 90 million bus for feed and residual.
US wheat exports in 2020-21 were projected at 975 million bus, up 25 million from the July outlook and up 10 million bus from 2019-20. The USDA pointed to lower production in several key competitors, most notably, the European Union.
The USDA made several adjustments to its 2020-21 supply-and-demand forecasts by wheat class.
The hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2021, was forecast at 390 million bus, down 33 million bus from July and down 25% from 521 million bus in 2020. Production was lowered 15 million bus, to 695 million. Domestic use in 2020-21 was lowered 2 million bus, to 426 million. Hard red winter wheat exports were forecast at 405 million bus, up 20 million from the July projection and up 29 million bus from 376 million in 2019-20.
The USDA forecast the hard red spring wheat carryover at 293 million bus, up 23 million bus from the July projection and up 13 million bus from 280 million bus in 2020. Hard red spring wheat production was raised 28 million bus from July to 530 million, while forecast imports were lowered 10 million bus, to 60 million. Domestic use in 2020-21 was forecast at 307 million bus, down 5 million from July. Hard red spring wheat exports were forecast unchanged at 270 million bus.
The soft red winter wheat 2021 carryover was projected at 103 million bus, unchanged from the July forecast and down just 2 million bus from 2020. Production was lowered 3 million bus from July, to 277 million bus, but domestic use was lowered by an equal amount to 199 million bus. Soft red winter wheat exports in 2020-21 were forecast at 90 million bus, unchanged.
The USDA forecast the white wheat carryover for 2021 at 104 million bus, down 1 million bus from July because of a 1-million-bu reduction in the production estimate to 274 million bus.
The USDA forecast the carryover of durum on June 1, 2021, at 36 million bus, down 4 million from the July projection and down 7 million bus from 43 million bus in 2020. The durum production forecast was raised 6 million bus from July, to 62 million bus. Domestic use in 2020-21 was projected at 89 million bus, up 6 million from July and up 24 million bus from 2019-20. Durum exports in 2021-22 were forecast at 30 million bus, up 5 million from the July outlook but down 12 million bus from 2019-20.