WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture, in its Nov. 10 Crop Production report, forecast 2020 US outturn of corn at 14,507 million bus, down 1.5% from its October forecast but up 7% from 2019, and of soybeans at 4,170 million bus, down 2.3% from October but up 17% from 2019.
Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, the average corn yield in 2020 was forecast at 175.8 bus an acre, down 2.6 bus from last month but up 8.3 bus from 167.5 bus in 2019. Corn harvested area was forecast at 82,527,000 acres, unchanged from October but up 1.5% from 2019.
If realized, corn production and average yield would be the third highest on record, with record outturn of 15,148 million bus in 2016 and the second highest of 14,609 million bus in 2017.
The average soybean yield was forecast at 50.7 bus an acre, down 1.2 bus from October but up 3.3 bus from 47.4 bus an acre in 2019. Harvested area was forecast at 82,289,000 acres, unchanged from the prior forecast but up 10% from 2019.
If realized, soybean production would be the fourth highest on record, with the highest being 4,428 million bus in 2018.
The USDA corn and soybean production and average yields all came in below the averages as well as below the full ranges of pre-report trade expectations.
The bullish corn and soybean production forecasts, coupled with 2020-21 corn and soybean carryover forecast also below trade expectations in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, sent Chicago corn and soybean futures sharply higher on Nov. 10.