LONDON — The International Grains Council (I.G.C.) on Feb. 22 lowered its estimate for total grains production in 2017-18 to 2,094 million tonnes, down from 2,100 million tonnes in January and down from 2,140 million estimated for 2016-17. Total consumption held steady at 2,104 million tonnes.
The I.G.C. said the decline in production primarily reflected poorer maize output prospects in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.
The I.G.C. estimated world wheat production in 2017-18 at 757 million tonnes, unchanged from January and up from 754 million tonnes forecast in 2016-17. World wheat ending stocks were estimated at 254 million tonnes, unchanged from January and up from 240 million tonnes in 2016-17.
“The projection for wheat points to a tighter market, as a drop in output and solid demand may result in the first reduction in stocks in six seasons,” the I.G.C. said. “Global wheat trade could be a record, including bigger purchases by India and Iran.”
The I.G.C. estimated 2017-18 maize production at 1,048 million tonnes, down from 1,054 million tonnes in January and compared with 1,088 million tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection was flat at 1,068 million tonnes.
Soybean production for 2017-18 was estimated at 347 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from 349 million tonnes in January, and down from 350 million tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection also was lowered, to 349 million tonnes from 352 million tonnes. The I.G.C. said global trade is expected to total 153 million tonnes, the same as forecast in January.
The 2017-18 world outturn for rice is expected to total 484 million tonnes, unchanged from January. Consumption is expected to increase to 486 million tonnes from 485 million tonnes.
The I.G.C. Grains and Oilseeds Index (G.O.I.) increased 5%, the I.G.C. said.
“The I.G.C. G.O.I. gained by a net 5% since the January G.M.R., reaching a seven-month peak,” the I.G.C. said. “Apart from rice, which weakened after an earlier sharp rally, all of the components of the index moved higher. Advances were mainly linked to expanding droughts in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains, but with robust export demand also contributing to gains in some countries.”
