An interesting shift I’ve seen over my 12 years covering this industry has been the evolution of consumers’ ideas around what is healthy and how bakery fits into that definition. When I joined Sosland Publishing in 2011, gluten-free was just getting off the ground, and we were all learning about celiac disease and gluten sensitivity. Low carb has had several names, the latest being keto, and flour and sugar have been villainized each time. 

While gluten-free will always be there for consumers who need it and low carb will always have its disciples, we’ve seen a move among consumers in the past few years to look at their health holistically. Physical health and nutrition remain top-of-mind, but consumers are starting to include mental and emotional health into their overall wellness plans. At Corbion’s 2023 Media Day, Anne-Marie Roerink, principal at 210 Analytics, presented data on the top trends shaping grocery shopping. According to 210 Analytics’ consumer survey for August 2023, 95% of consumers believe that physical health and emotional well-being are interwoven. 

“It’s not always about nutrition; sometimes it’s just about doing something nice for yourself emotionally,” she said. “That’s something where bakery has long figured that out. Bakery can create a moment of bliss and escape from everyday life.”

That’s great news for the bakery category because as people continue to find ways to save on their grocery bills, they aren’t cutting out their indulgences … all in the name of happiness. Circana data from August 2023 presented at the American Bakers Association’s NextGenBaker Leadership Forum, co-located with Nexus 2023, showed that while 46% of shoppers are scaling back on nonessentials, they don’t consider indulgent bakery as nonessential. Melissa Altobelli, senior vice president of client insights, dairy and bakery vertical, Circana, reported that donut and cookie sales are particularly strong this year.

“The good news for perimeter baked goods is that consumers are still indulging,” she said. “They may be cutting back on nonessentials, but they still like to give themselves a sweet treat.” 

That’s not to say that consumers aren’t shifting the ways they indulge or shop for indulgences. There’s certainly movement in the category around portion sizes and new twists on old favorites. But one thing is clear: Consumers are looking for indulgence as a way to unwind, and they are largely turning to bakery even as they cut back or buy value brands in other categories. This is great news in more ways than one: a more holistic and balanced approach to health for all of us and more volume and sales for indulgent baked goods.